How Do The Trump Tariffs Affect Carbon Emissions?

Job Market Paper

This paper examines the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on global carbon emissions using a global computable general equilibrium framework. I find that emissions decline overall, not primarily from reduced trade, but through technique effects that raise the renewable share of power generation and encourage substitution away from fossil fuels. The results show that trade policy can interact with climate policy in unexpected ways, at times accelerating the shift to cleaner production.

What is the Effect of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement on Global Value Chains?

This paper shows that the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement increased U.S. auto imports from Korea by $4.8 billion annually and reduced U.S. agricultural exports by $0.7 billion. Using synthetic controls, I find that the FTA shifted trade toward less global value chain (GVC) intensive forms: auto imports rose in both GVC and non-GVC trade, while agriculture exports saw a decline in GVC trade and a rise in non-GVC trade. These results highlight that focusing only on trade volumes overlooks how FTAs reshape the structure of global value chain participation.

The Economics of the Net Zero Transition: Policy Scenarios and the Role of Trade and Cooperation

This study analyzes the economic implications of achieving global net zero emissions by 2050, with emphasis on Asia and the Pacific. Using the Global Trade-Environment Model (GTEM), we simulate decarbonization and trade-related policy scenarios to assess impacts on output, employment, investment, and trade. Results show that while the transition requires major shifts in energy, production, and investment, the overall GDP costs are modest compared with the risks of inaction. Trade plays a pivotal role by enabling technology diffusion and supporting cooperative policies such as carbon border adjustments and environmental goods liberalization.